The full preliminary results released by the electoral commission on Sunday show the governing National Party of the outgoing Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, winning the most seats, 42 out of 131.
The centre-left opposition (Labour) clinches 36 seats, with the Green Party in third place on 16 seats. The libertarian ACT party collects 13, the populist NZ First 12, the Opportunities Party 7 and Te Pāti Māori 5.
“The people of New Zealand have given us the largest number of seats in Parliament,” Mr. Luxon said to reporters on Sunday. “We can work with our current coalition partners to form the government,” he added.
National’s score would give it a very slim majority of 67 seats in Parliament, if it again allied with its current coalition partners, NZ First and ACT.
Christopher Luxon had bet on pledges not to introduce new taxes to stay in power after three turbulent years in office, marked by two unsuccessful attempts by his own party to oust him and a weak economy.
The Labour Party had proposed a set of measures to ease the economic burden on New Zealanders, as the cost of essential goods remains high.
Final results only by the end of November
The results published cover about 2.4 million ballots cast during the early voting period and on polling day Saturday.
They do not include roughly 400,000 “special votes,” among which around 100,000 ballots cast abroad as well as those cast by voters in New Zealand outside the electorate where they reside. The full and final tally of votes for this complex election, which blends national lists with local constituency votes, will be released on November 27.
All eyes are now on a handful of highly contested constituencies that could tilt the election toward the left bloc, but the path to victory remains extremely narrow.
Labour candidates are trailing by only a few hundred votes in two key constituencies: Hamilton East and Wairarapa.
Bolstering opposition hopes, the “special votes” traditionally tilt to the left.
Coalition negotiations
Only after the publication of the final results on November 27 will parties begin coalition talks to form the next government.
It is possible that no formal agreement is reached by the end of the year. The current coalition between the National Party, the ACT libertarian party and NZ First has formed a fragile alliance since 2023 and has said it stands ready to work together again.
If the left bloc manages to break through thanks to the special votes, it could form a coalition with the Green Party, Te Pāti Māori, and the centrist Opportunities Party (TOP).
This latter party is currently pegged at seven seats, giving it significant leverage in the upcoming negotiations.
This movement, founded in 2016 and up to now relatively low-profile, has seen its poll numbers soar in the run-up to the election, under the leadership of Qiulae Wong, who advocates a “pragmatic politics” approach to counter polarization.
